乒乓球比赛胜负的多维决定因素研究

何宗阳（TigerWing翼虎乒乓创始人, 新西兰.Sep 10, 2025 ）

摘要

乒乓球作为一项融合速度、技巧与智慧的运动，比赛结果并非仅由基本技术水平决定。许多球友常有疑问：为何技术全面、基本功扎实的选手，依然常常败于实力略逊的对手？本文在文献综述与实际案例分析的基础上，探讨除基本技术外影响乒乓球比赛胜负的多维因素，包括竞技状态、身体素质、心理调适、战术运用、比赛经验与球商等。文章强调，技术只是胜利的基石，而状态、心理、战术与临场应变才是决定胜负的关键。通过对比运动心理学、运动训练学和实战案例，本文提出一个“多维制胜模型”，为运动员与教练员在训练与比赛中的实践提供参考。

关键词

乒乓球；竞技状态；心理素质；战术；球商；比赛经验

引言

乒乓球作为世界上开展最为广泛的体育项目之一，不仅强调基本功的扎实训练，也高度依赖比赛中的临场发挥与综合能力。蔡振华在一次访谈中曾指出：“基本功决定下限，而心理、战术和临场状态决定上限。”。从实际情况看，即便是顶尖运动员，也常因心理失衡、战术不当或临场调节不佳而在比赛中失利。本文将系统分析这些看似“非技术”的制胜因素。

正文

一、基本功与实战的关系

基本功训练侧重于动作规范与身体协调，如正手攻球、反手拨球、推挡等。此阶段主要目标是形成技术动作的稳定性。然而，实战则要求选手在极短时间内做出应变，这涉及感知、判断、决策和情绪调控等心理过程。张继科曾说过：“比赛不是比谁练得好，而是看谁在关键时能顶住压力。”这点凸显了基本功与实战之间的差异与张力。

二、除基本技术之外的制胜因素

1. 巅峰竞技状态

运动员必须在比赛中进入最佳竞技状态（flow state）。米哈里·契克森Csikszentmihalyi（1990）的“心流理论”表明，运动员在在進入心流後，幾乎所有的瑣事和雜念都消失了，只有完全投入、全神貫注与自我忘我的状态中，这时候的表现最佳。也就是说，在运动表现中只要进入“心流”状态（“在心流区”being in the zone）就可以取得竞争优势与完美表现。乒乓球高强度对抗中，短暂的状态波动也足以改变比赛局势。

2. 身体素质与动作功能

力、速、耐、敏、柔五项指标是高水平乒乓运动能力的基础（Bompa & Haff, 2009）。例如，马龙长期保持世界顶尖水准，背后便是强大体能保障与科学体能训练系统。

3. 心理素质与情绪调控

心理学研究表明，大赛失误70%以上与心理压力相关（Weinberg & Gould, 2019）。优秀选手需具备冷静应对失误和对手幸运球的能力。孔令辉曾在采访中说过：“冠军和一般运动员的差别不在球技，而在心态。” 心理素质，具体来说包括抗压能力(到了国际大赛，全场瞩目，压力一上来肾上腺素飙升，他们就挺不住了)、发挥的稳定性、自信心等。输不输得起？打比赛能不能发挥出最大的潜力？(邓亚萍, 2021)

4. 主动进攻与求胜欲望

现代乒乓球崇尚高强度对抗。积极主动的抢攻战术常能打乱对手节奏。运动心理学认为，强烈的求胜欲望能提高运动员临场爆发力（Hardy et al., 2017）。

5. 变化与灵活性

战术变化是战胜强手的重要途径。例如刘国梁强调：“一个运动员要学会下棋般打球。”这不仅是得分方式，更是心理牵制。

6. 临场发挥与状态波动

“临场”往往决定胜负，许多冷门由此产生。由于乒乓球的快节奏，微小的状态差即可导致比赛走向逆转（Wu, 2021）。

7. 赛前准备、阅读比赛的能力以及分析对手的能力

赛前准备不仅是热身，更是对对手的研究。能否通过分析其技术特点与习惯，在开局阶段掌握主动，体现了运动员的比赛阅读与判断能力。

8. 打法相克度

乒乓球风格间常存“相克”关系。某些打法在特定组合下占优，合理利用这种优势并规避劣势，是战术成功的关键。

9. 球商（靈活機動/自我调节能力/随机应变的能力）

球商，也称为比赛智商，是指运动员在比赛中的理解力、判断力和临场应变能力。是一种兼具预判、情绪控制、战术理解的综合智慧。有人形容：“球商是技战术之外的第六感觉” 。球商是乒乓球运动员综合智慧在技术和战术上体现的能力，是竞技水平高低的重要标志，是制胜比赛的核心因素之一。

10. 时间与节奏掌控

通过合理运用暂停、擦汗等节奏手段，可以打断对手势头或自我调整，这是现代高水平比赛常见的“心理战”。

11. 比赛经验

比赛经验积累对于年轻选手尤其重要。研究指出，经验丰富者在关键分表现更稳定（Sampaio et al., 2015）。大赛经验则是运动员在重要比赛中积累的实战经验。这些经验帮助运动员在高压环境下保持冷静，合理应对各种突发情况，并更有效地发挥自己的技术和战术水平。

12. 战术运用

比赛瞬息万变，运动员需即时调整技战术与心态。善于顺势而变者，往往能在关键时重新掌控主动。有效战术则要求赛前准备与临场调整的结合。

13. 运气因素

运气虽非可控，却常在细节层面影响结果。正如邓亚萍所言：“运气属于有准备的人。”

结论

本文通过对乒乓球比赛多维制胜因素的梳理与分析，提出“多维制胜模型”：技术为基础，身体为保障，心理为核心，战术为关键，经验与球商为升华。换言之，选手能否取胜，影响胜负的因素远远超出基本技术层面。技术训练固然是运动员长期进步的基础，但在真正的比赛中，制胜往往取决于更复杂的综合能力。

首先，赛前准备与比赛阅读是隐藏的关键环节。能够全面研究对手、预测战术趋势的运动员，往往在比赛中更快进入主动。其次，打法相克的存在提醒我们，技术并非孤立存在，而是要放在对抗关系中去检验。只有善于在风格上找到突破口，才能真正发挥自身长处。再次，灵活机动和临场应变的能力，决定了运动员能否在突发情况下维持平衡。当状态波动、对手战术变化、甚至运气因素出现时，如何通过自我调节与战术调整进行反制，直接影响着最终的比分走向。

因此，乒乓球胜利的本质不是“谁练得更多”，而是“谁能在关键时刻解决问题”。换句话说，胜负不仅是技术的比拼，更是心理、智慧与意志的综合较量。对于运动员和教练而言，训练目标应超越单纯的技术积累，更需在身心调控、战术意识和实战应变上系统深耕。未来的高水平乒乓球竞争，必将是一种多维能力融合下的对抗格局。

正如邓亚萍所说：“真正的冠军不是不会犯错，而是在犯错后依然能赢球。”这句话恰恰揭示了本文的核心——胜负之关键，往往就在于准备是否充分、战术是否得当、应变是否及时。

参考文献

熊志超,2023.现代乒乓球战术实力评估新方法。中国体育研究 2023 年 9 月第 5 卷第 3 期
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Wu, J. (2021). “Match momentum and psychological resilience in elite table tennis.” International Journal of Table Tennis Research, 3(2), 45–57.

Multidimensional Determinants of Victory in Table Tennis Matches

John Ho (Founder of TigerWing Table Tennis, New Zealand. Sep 10, 2025)

Abstract

Table tennis is a sport that integrates speed, technique, and strategic intelligence, where match outcomes are not determined by technical proficiency alone. A recurring question among players is why well-rounded athletes with solid fundamentals sometimes lose to seemingly less skilled opponents. Through a review of existing literature and case analyses, this article examines multidimensional determinants of match success beyond basic technique: competitive state, physical conditioning, psychological regulation, tactical execution, competition experience, and game intelligence. The study emphasizes that while technical foundations provide the baseline, factors such as mental state, tactical adaptability, and in-play adjustments ultimately decide the outcome. Drawing on sport psychology, training science, and real-world match scenarios, the paper proposes a “Multidimensional Winning Model,” offering athletes and coaches practical insights for training and competition.

Keywords: Table tennis; competitive state; psychological skills; tactics; game intelligence; match experience

Introduction

As one of the most widely played sports globally, table tennis requires not only a solid technical foundation but also the capacity for dynamic adaptation in actual matches. Cai Zhenhua once noted, “Fundamentals set the lower limit, but psychology, tactics, and match-day performance set the upper limit.” Even elite players can lose due to psychological imbalance, flawed strategies, or poor in-the-moment regulation. This paper examines these seemingly “non-technical” factors that shape match outcomes.

1. Fundamentals and Match Application

Fundamentals emphasize movement mechanics and coordination, such as forehand drive, backhand block, or push. The goal is stability and repeatability of strokes. In actual competition, however, players must process perception, decision-making, and emotional control within milliseconds. Zhang Jike remarked, “Matches are not won by who trains harder, but by who withstands pressure at critical moments.” This underscores the tension between pure training and applied performance.

2. Determinants Beyond Technique

2.1 Peak Competitive State

Athletes must reach optimal competition readiness (flow state). Csikszentmihalyi’s flow theory (1990) demonstrates that athletes perform best under conditions of deep concentration and self-forgetfulness. In a sport as fast-paced as table tennis, minor fluctuations in state can decisively shift momentum.

2.2 Physical Conditioning and Functional Capacity

Strength, speed, endurance, agility, and flexibility form the physical foundation of elite performance (Bompa & Haff, 2009). Ma Long’s sustained dominance illustrates the role of enduring conditioning systems and evidence-based physical training.

2.3 Psychological Regulation

Studies have shown that over 70% of errors in major competitions are attributable to psychological stress (Weinberg & Gould, 2019). Elite athletes must remain resilient through unforced errors or opponents’ lucky points. As Kong Linghui observed, “The difference between a champion and an ordinary player lies not in technique, but in mentality.” Mental quality, specifically including the ability to withstand pressure(When they get to international competitions, with everyone watching, the pressure builds and their adrenaline levels surge, and they can’t stand it), performance consistency, self-confidence, etc. Can you afford to lose? Can you play to your full potential in the game? (Deng, Y. , 2021)

2.4 Proactiveness and Desire to Win

Modern table tennis is built around rapid, aggressive exchanges. Initiative-driven tactics often disrupt opponents’ rhythm. According to sports psychology, strong competitive desire enhances athletes’ explosive responses in play (Hardy et al., 2017).

2.5 Tactical Variability and Flexibility

Adaptability is crucial against top opponents. Liu Guoliang famously asserted, “Athletes must play as if they are playing chess,” underscoring the interplay of scoring, pressure, and deception.

2.6 Match-Day Fluctuations

“On-the-day form” often determines outcomes, particularly upsets. Given the game’s speed, even a brief dip in state may reverse momentum (Wu, 2021).

2.7 Match Preparation and Reading Ability

Preparation encompasses more than physical warm-up. The ability to analyze opponents’ strengths and tendencies often shapes the early stages of matches—critical for gaining initiative.

2.8 Playing-Style Matchups

Certain playing styles inherently counter others, such as long pips disrupting spin-heavy inverted rubber rallies. Recognizing and exploiting these style interactions, while avoiding disadvantages, is a tactical imperative.

2.9 Game Intelligence (Qiushang)

Game intelligence—often likened to a “sixth sense”—encompasses predictive ability, situational judgment, emotional regulation, and tactical insight. It signifies an athlete’s capability to solve problems under evolving match conditions and is widely recognized as a hallmark of high-level players.

2.10 Time and Rhythm Control

Strategic use of pauses, towel breaks, or service routines helps disrupt opponents’ momentum while stabilizing self-regulation. These rhythm mechanisms are fundamental elements of psychological warfare in elite competition.

2.11 Match Experience

Accumulated match exposure is particularly critical for young players. Studies confirm that experienced athletes demonstrate greater stability under pressure and perform more consistently in clutch moments (Sampaio et al., 2015).

2.12 Tactical Execution and Adjustment

With matches changing point by point, effective tactical execution demands both pre-match planning and in-play adjustments. Players capable of seamlessly recalibrating their approaches often regain initiative at crucial junctures.

2.13 Luck and Contingency

Though uncontrollable, luck—for instance, net or edge balls—often tips close contests. Yet, as Deng Yaping highlighted, “Luck favors the prepared.”

Conclusion

This study identifies and synthesizes diverse determinants of table tennis performance beyond core technical training. The proposed Multidimensional Winning Model positions:

Technique as the foundation,
Physical qualities as the safeguard,
Psychological regulation as the core,
Tactical use as the decisive factor, and
Experience and game intelligence as the transformative dimensions.

Victory thus depends not only on technical refinement but also on preparation, tactical flexibility, mental resilience, and adaptive intelligence during competition. For coaches and athletes, this implies that training must transcend mechanical drills to integrate psychological skills, tactical literacy, and experiential learning. Future high-level table tennis will increasingly manifest as contests of multidimensional performance capacities.

As Deng Yaping aptly remarked: “A true champion is not one who never makes mistakes, but one who wins despite them.” This sentiment encapsulates the essence of the model—success in table tennis lies in preparation depth, tactical adaptability, and timely problem-solving under pressure.

References

Bompa, T., & Haff, G. (2009). Periodization: Theory and Methodology of Training. Human Kinetics.
Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1990). Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience. Harper & Row.
Hardy, J., Jones, G., & Gould, D. (2017). Understanding Psychological Preparation for Sport. Wiley.
Sampaio, J., McGarry, T., & O’Donoghue, P. (2015). Routledge Handbook of Sports Performance Analysis. Routledge.
Weinberg, R., & Gould, D. (2019). Foundations of Sport and Exercise Psychology. Human Kinetics.
Wu, J. (2021). Match momentum and psychological resilience in elite table tennis. International Journal of Table Tennis Research, 3(2), 45–57.
Xiong, Z. (2023). A new method for evaluating tactical competence in modern table tennis. China Sport Research, 5(3).
Li, Y. (n.d.). Persistence in writing a life of table tennis. China University of Political Science and Law Gazette, Issue 743.
Deng, Y. (2021). Xinli [Mental Power]. Renmin University Press.
Sohu Sports. (2024). Stress reduction in table tennis: Staying calm under pressure. Retrieved September 10, 2025, from https://www.sohu.com/a/761103482_121767385